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A new econometric model to analyse variations and structural changes in international trade: applications to the Norwegian import trade across continents and over time

机译:一种新的计量经济学模型,用于分析国际贸易中的变化和结构变化:应用于跨大陆和随时间推移的挪威进口贸易

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摘要

This paper proposes to apply a new econometric model to assess Norwegian imports over the world's continents. The paper applies the two-stage non-full rank hierarchical linear econometric model for yearly import data ranging from 1988 to 2014. The econometric model can give important information about the Norwegian import pattern without using other predictor variables. Furthermore, the model incorporates the Hecksher-Ohlin theory of international trade and can show: (a) the overall trade pattern and (b) the potential structural changes of the import trade. The results suggest first that the Norwegian import expenditure shows heterogeneity across world continents. The continent of Europe has a market share alone of 69.3%. Moreover, more than 95% of Norwegian imports are dependent on imports from the three continents of Europe, Asia and Oceania, and North and Central America. Second, the results suggest potential structural changes over both continents and items for Norwegian imports.
机译:本文建议采用一种新的计量经济学模型来评估挪威在世界各大洲的进口量。本文将两阶段非满等级分层线性计量经济学模型用于1988年至2014年的年度进口数据。该计量经济学模型可以在不使用其他预测变量的情况下提供有关挪威进口模式的重要信息。此外,该模型结合了国际贸易的Hecksher-Ohlin理论,可以表明:(a)总体贸易模式和(b)进口贸易的潜在结构性变化。结果首先表明,挪威的进口支出在世界各大洲之间表现出异质性。仅欧洲大陆就有69.3%的市场份额。此外,超过95%的挪威进口产品依赖于来自欧洲,亚洲和大洋洲以及北美和中美洲三大洲的进口。其次,结果表明,两大洲和挪威进口商品的潜在结构性变化。

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