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首页> 外文期刊>Economics Research International >Econometric Modelling of the Variations of Norway's Export Trade across Continents and over Time: The Two-Stage Non-Full Rank Hierarchical Linear Econometric Model Approach
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Econometric Modelling of the Variations of Norway's Export Trade across Continents and over Time: The Two-Stage Non-Full Rank Hierarchical Linear Econometric Model Approach

机译：挪威跨大陆和随时间变化的出口贸易变化的计量经济学模型：两阶段非全等级分层线性计量经济学模型方法

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摘要

This paper applies the two-stage hierarchical non-full rank linear econometric model to make a deep analysis based on revenue generated from key Norwegian export items over the world's continents. The model's ability to analyse the variation of Norway's export trade gives us the following interesting details: (1) for each continent intra- and intervariation of export items, (2) access to deep knowledge about the characteristics of the Norway's export items revenue, (3) quantifying the economic importance and sustainability of export items within continents; and finally (4) comparing a given export item economic importance across continents. The results suggest the following important policy implications for Norway. First, Europe is the most important trade partner for Norway. In fact, 81.5% of Norwegian export items are transported to Europe. Second, there is a structural shift in Norwegian exports from North and Central America to Asia and Oceania. Third, the new importance of Asia and Oceania is also emphasized by the 85% increase in export revenues over the period 1988-2012. The trade pattern has changed and trade policy must change accordingly. The analysis has shown that in 2012 there are two important export continents for Norway: Europe and Asia and Oceania.
机译：本文采用两阶段分层非满秩线性计量经济模型，对世界各大洲挪威主要出口商品产生的收入进行了深入分析。该模型分析挪威出口贸易变化的能力为我们提供了以下有趣的细节：（1）每个大陆的出口商品的内部和相互变化，（2）获得有关挪威出口商品收入特征的深入知识，（ 3）量化各大洲内出口商品的经济重要性和可持续性；最后（4）比较给定的出口项目在各大洲的经济重要性。结果表明，以下对挪威的重要政策影响。首先，欧洲是挪威最重要的贸易伙伴。实际上，有81.5％的挪威出口商品被运往欧洲。第二，挪威的出口从北美和中美洲向亚洲和大洋洲发生了结构性转变。第三，从1988年至2012年，出口收入增长了85％，也突显了亚洲和大洋洲的新重要性。贸易方式已经改变，贸易政策也必须随之改变。分析表明，2012年挪威有两个重要的出口大洲：欧洲和亚洲以及大洋洲。

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