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Why Monte Carlo Simulations Are Inferences and Not Experiments

机译：为什么蒙特卡洛模拟是推理而不是实验

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Monte Carlo simulations arrive at their results by introducing randomness, sometimes derived from a physical randomizing device. Nonetheless, we argue, they open no new epistemic channels beyond that already employed by traditional simulations: the inference by ordinary argumentation of conclusions from assumptions built into the simulations. We show that Monte Carlo simulations cannot produce knowledge other than by inference, and that they resemble other computer simulations in the manner in which they derive their conclusions. Simple examples of Monte Carlo simulations are analysed to identify the underlying inferences.View full textDownload full textRelated var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; var addthis_config = {"data_track_addressbar":true,"ui_click":true}; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02698595.2012.748497
机译：蒙特卡洛模拟通过引入随机性（有时是从物理随机设备中得出）来得出其结果。但是，我们认为，除了传统模拟已经采用的方法外，他们没有打开任何新的认识论渠道：通过普通论证从模拟中内置的假设得出结论。我们表明，蒙特卡洛模拟不能通过推理产生其他知识，并且它们在得出结论的方式上类似于其他计算机模拟。分析了蒙特卡洛模拟的简单示例，以识别潜在的推理。查看全文下载全文相关变量，digg，google，more“，发布号：” ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b“}; var addthis_config = {“ data_track_addressbar”：true，“ ui_click”：true};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02698595.2012.748497

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