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Analysis

机译：分析

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The Hizbullah attack was painful for Israeli society, which is sensitive to the loss of its soldiers' lives. However, the IDF is interpreting the group's decision to launch a localised, precision strike on a military target as a signal that Hizbullah is keen to avoid an escalation that could lead to a major Israeli attack on its home territory in southern Lebanon. At the same time IDF officials say more strikes will follow if Hizbullah continues to build up its presence on the Syrian side of the Golan ceasefire line with Iranian assistance. From the IDF's point of view, this process is gradually dissolving the distinction between the Syrian and Lebanese borders, turning them into a single front against Israel. However, any such operations will be carried out only after carefully weighing their benefits against the risk of breaking Hizbullah's 'pain threshold' and provoking retaliation. If these evaluations lead the defence establishment to conclude the strategic benefits outweigh the risks, and defence officials then convince the Cabinet, pre-emptive strikes with significant risks of an escalation will be approved and carried out.
机译：真主党的袭击使以色列社会痛苦不堪，以色列社会对其士兵的生命丧生十分敏感。但是，以色列国防军将该组织决定对军事目标发动局部精确打击的信号，是真主党渴望避免升级的信号，这可能导致以色列对其黎巴嫩南部的本国领土进行大规模攻击。与此同时，以色列国防军官员表示，如果真主党在伊朗的协助下继续在戈兰停火线的叙利亚一侧扩大其存在，将继续进行罢工。从以色列国防军的角度来看，这一进程正在逐步消除叙利亚和黎巴嫩边界之间的区别，使它们成为对抗以色列的单一战线。但是，任何此类行动只有在仔细权衡其利益与打破真主党“痛苦阈值”并招致报复的风险之后，才能进行。如果这些评估使国防机构得出的战略利益胜于风险，然后国防官员说服内阁，则将批准并实施具有升级风险的先发制人的罢工。

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    《Jane's Defence Weekly》 |2015年第5期|581824-2531|共6页
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