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Japan-U.S. trade balance at commodity level and asymmetric effects of Yen-Dollar rate

机译：日美商品贸易平衡与日元对美元汇率的不对称影响

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Previous research that applied the new nonlinear methods to Japan’s trade balance with the rest of the world or between Japan and its major partner, the U.S., could not discover any asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes. Suspecting that aggregation bias could play a role, in this paper we concentrate on the Japan-U.S. trade balance but disaggregate their trade flows by commodity and consider the response of the trade balance of each of the 56 industries to industry-specific real exchange rate changes. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 44 industries and short-run impact asymmetric effects in 19 industries. However, the short-run effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 18 industries. Small as well as large industries are included. Our approach identifies industries that will benefit from a yen depreciation or that will be hurt from a yen appreciation.
机译：先前将新的非线性方法应用于日本与世界其他地区或日本与其主要合作伙伴美国之间的贸易平衡的研究未能发现汇率变化的任何不对称影响。考虑到聚集偏差可能会起作用，在本文中，我们集中于日美贸易差额，但按商品对它们的贸易流进行了分类，并考虑了56个行业中每个行业的贸易差额对特定于行业的实际汇率变化的响应。我们发现44个行业的汇率变化具有短期非对称效应，而19个行业具有短期影响非对称效应。但是，短期效应持续到18个行业的长期不对称效应。大小产业都包括在内。我们的方法确定了将受益于日元贬值或将受到日元升值伤害的行业。

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