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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied econometrics >Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns
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Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns

机译：消费者通胀预期，收入变化和经济衰退

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摘要

Using a novel, nationally representative dataset containing the expectations of over 300,000 Australians, individuals are shown to form expectations in a manner inadequately explained by popular expectation mechanisms. Approximately one in five individuals form inflation expectations that are negatively related to their own-income changes, even after accounting for their level of optimism regarding future economic conditions and their observation of economic news. These individuals are more likely to be engaged in manual labour and to be on lower income brackets. The inflation expectations of such individuals rise, even as Phillips curve predictions of inflation fall. The findings are particularly important for inflation dynamics during economic downturns when large numbers of consumers are likely to heavily increase their inflation expectations, potentially resulting in large inflation surprises.
机译：使用含有超过300,000多个澳大利亚人预期的新型国家代表性数据集，个人以受欢迎的期望机制不充分解释的方式形成期望。 即使在考虑到未来经济条件的乐观程度和他们对经济新闻的观察后，大约有五分之一的人表现出与自身收入变化负相关的通胀预期。 这些人更有可能从事体力劳动并在较低的收入支架上。 即使作为通胀衰退的菲利普斯曲线预测，这种个人崛起的通胀预期也是如此。 当大量消费者可能严重增加通胀期望时，这些调查结果对于经济衰退期间的通胀动态尤为重要，可能导致巨大的通胀惊喜。

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