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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied statistics >To move or not to move to find a new job:spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects
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To move or not to move to find a new job:spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects

机译：搬家或不搬家寻找新工作：具有动态协变量效应的空间持续时间模型

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The aim of this paper is to show the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We analyse the unemployment behaviour in Germany between 2000 and 2004 using a massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency. To investigate dynamic covariate effects and differences between competing job markets depending on the distance between former and recent working place, a functional duration time model with competing risks is used. It is build upon a competing hazard function where some of the smooth covariate effects are allowed to vary with unemployment duration. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the spatial, economic and individual covariate effects of the competing job markets and on analysing their general influence on the unemployed's re-employment probabilities. As a result of our analyses, we reveal differences concerning gender, age and education. We also discover an effect between the newly formed and the old West German states. Moreover, the spatial pattern between the considered job markets differs.
机译：本文的目的是展示惩罚样条平滑的灵活性和能力，作为建模持续时间数据的估计例程。我们使用来自德国联邦职业介绍所的庞大数据库分析了2000年至2004年德国的失业行为。为了研究动态协变量效应和竞争工作市场之间的差异，取决于前工作地点和最近工作地点之间的距离，使用了具有竞争风险的功能工期时间模型。它建立在竞争风险函数的基础上，其中一些平滑的协变量效应随失业时间而变化。我们的分析重点是对比竞争性就业市场的空间，经济和个体协变量效应，并分析其对失业人员再就业概率的总体影响。经过分析，我们发现了有关性别，年龄和受教育程度的差异。我们还发现了新组建的州与旧的西德州之间的影响。此外，所考虑的就业市场之间的空间格局也不同。

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