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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied statistics >Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?
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Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?

机译：足球比赛作为实验：“最佳”球队多长时间获胜一次？

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摘要

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score, it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game was radically changed.
机译：人们广泛讨论了一种模型，在该模型中，足球比赛中球队得分的目标数量遵循泊松分布或密切相关的目标。在这里，我们将足球比赛视为一项实验，以评估两支球队中的哪支更好，并检查该实验（比赛）的结果真正代表两支球队相对能力的可能性。给定最终分数，可以使用贝叶斯方法量化“最佳团队获胜”的可能性。对于典型的分数，产生误导性结果的可能性很大。修改游戏规则以增加典型的进球数将改善这种情况，但是除非彻底改变游戏的性格，否则无法获得通常被认为令人满意的置信度。

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