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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of banking & finance >Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads
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Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads

机译：银行太大而不能倒闭还是太大而无法储蓄？来自股票价格和CDS价差的国际证据

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摘要

Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of bank size and government deficits on bank stock prices and CDS spreads. We find that a bank's market-to-book value is negatively related to the size of its liabilities-to-GDP ratio, especially in countries running large public deficits. CDS spreads appear to decrease with stronger public finances. These results suggest that systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, especially if they are located in countries with weak public finances. We document that banks' average liabilities-to-GDP ratio reached a peak in 2007 before a significant drop in 2008, which could reflect these private incentives to downsize.
机译：世界各地日益恶化的公共财政使人们对各国纾困其最大银行的能力产生怀疑。对于国际银行样本，本文研究了银行规模和政府赤字对银行股票价格和CDS价差的影响。我们发现，银行的市净率与其负债对国内生产总值之比的大小呈负相关，特别是在存在大量公共赤字的国家中。随着公共财政的增长，CDS利差似乎在下降。这些结果表明，具有系统重要性的银行可以通过缩小规模或拆分来增加其价值，特别是如果它们位于公共财政薄弱的国家。我们记录到，银行的平均负债占GDP的比率在2007年达到峰值，然后在2008年显着下降，这可能反映了这些私人部门缩减规模的动机。

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