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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >The Use of Multiple Reference Points in Risky Decision Making
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The Use of Multiple Reference Points in Risky Decision Making

机译：在风险决策中使用多个参考点

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摘要

Among psychologists and economists, prospect theory continues to be one of the most popular models of decision making. The theory's key property is reference dependence; specifically, how an individual's perception of loss or gain is dependent upon their starting point (i.e., the status quo). Although prospect theory is widely accepted, other authors have sought the inclusion of reference points besides the status quo. Initially these extensions focused on the importance of single reference points such as goals. More recently, authors have explained choice data by including multiple reference points within the value function. Multiple-reference-point theories generally assume that many choice situations possess an implicit or explicit goal, or point an individual will strive to obtain, and/or a minimum requirement (i.e., a "lower bound") above which an individual will strive to stay. In two experiments, we present evidence that individuals can utilize the minimum requirement, status quo, and goal within a single risky decision task. Participants most often chose to maximize their chance of reaching reference points even when that decision was riskier, resulted in lower expected value, resulted in lower expected utility, or ran contrary to the predictions of prospect theory. Furthermore, salience and uncertainty moderated the use of goals and minimum requirements as reference points.
机译：在心理学家和经济学家中，前景理论仍然是最受欢迎的决策模型之一。该理论的关键特性是参考依赖性。具体而言，个人对损失或收益的看法如何取决于他们的出发点（即现状）。尽管前景理论已被广泛接受，但除现状外，其他作者也寻求包括参考点。最初，这些扩展专注于单个参考点（例如目标）的重要性。最近，作者通过在值函数中包含多个参考点来解释选择数据。多参考点理论通常假设许多选择情况具有隐式或显式的目标，或个人将努力获得的要点，和/或个人将努力追求的最低要求（即“下限”）。留。在两个实验中，我们提供证据表明个人可以在单个风险决策任务中利用最低要求，现状和目标。即使决策风险较大，预期价值较低，预期效用较低或与前景理论的预测背道而驰，参与者通常还是选择最大程度地获得参考点。此外，显着和不确定性限制了使用目标和最低要求作为参考点。

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