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Demonstrating and Eliminating the Aggregation Effect in Physical Skill Tasks

机译:展示和消除体育技能任务中的聚集效应

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Confidence judgments can be elicited in multiple ways. One of these procedures is to provide confidence judgments regarding each of a number of cases (individual judgments). A second procedure is to provide confidence judgments about a set of items (an aggregate judgment). Much research has demonstrated an aggregation effect-that individual judgments are more confident than aggregate judgments-within the cognitive knowledge domain. However, this effect has not previously been investigated with physical performance skill tasks. In three experiments, participants gave individual and aggregate judgments regarding the number of successful tosses they would make in either a ring toss, ping-pong toss, or basketball toss task. In keeping with the aggregation effect, individual judgments were more confident than were aggregate judgments of success. Additionally, we eliminated the aggregation effect in Exper-iments 2 and 3 by employing a case-specific base rate manipulation. Consistent with previous research with cognitive tasks, these results suggest that individual confidence judgments for physical skill tasks are determined primarily by characteristics associated with the individual case to be judged, whereas aggregate confidence judgments are determined by a more general evaluation of one's ability in the domain.
机译:可以通过多种方式得出信心判断。这些程序之一是针对多个案件中的每个案件提供信心判断(个人判断)。第二种程序是提供对一组项目的置信度判断(合计判断)。许多研究表明,在认知知识领域内,聚集效应(即个体判断比聚集判断更有信心)。但是,以前尚未通过身体表现技能任务研究过这种效果。在三个实验中,参与者对自己将在圆环抛球,乒乓球抛球或篮球抛球任务中进行的成功抛球次数做出单独和综合的判断。与聚集效应保持一致,个人判断比对成功的聚集判断更有信心。此外,我们通过使用案例特定的基本速率操作消除了实验2和3中的聚集效应。与先前关于认知任务的研究一致,这些结果表明,对体育技能任务的个人信心判断主要由与要判断的个案相关的特征决定,而总体信心判断则由对领域能力的更一般性评估决定。

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