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A framework for variance analysis of customer equity based on a Markov chain model

机译：基于马尔可夫链模型的客户股权方差分析框架

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This study proposes a framework for variance analysis of customer equity (CE) based on a Markov chain model called the Leslie matrix, developed in mathematical biology. Because customer lifetime value represents the net present value of customer derived cashflow, CE can be characterized as a forward-looking measure. Numerous studies have addressed the use of CE for planning. However, few studies have utilized CE for control. When CE is used as a basis for control, variance analysis is indispensable. In the proposed framework, CE variance is divided into three parts: customer payoff variance, customer lifecycle variance, and customer state variance. Thereafter, customer lifecycle variance is further broken down into customer acquisition, retention, and expansion. The aforementioned framework was applied to membership customers of a Japanese resort hotel chain. The results revealed that customer retention was a major cause of CE variance, whereas customer acquisition and expansion had a smaller impact.
机译：本研究提出了基于称为Leslie矩阵的Markov链模型的客户公平（CE）方差分析框架，在数学生物学中开发。由于客户终身值表示客户派生现金流的净现值，因此CE可以表征为前瞻性度量。众多的研究已经解决了CE进行规划。然而，很少有研究已经利用了CE进行控制。当CE用作控制的基础时，方差分析是必不可少的。在拟议的框架中，CE方差分为三个部分：客户支付方差，客户生命周期方差和客户状态方差。此后，客户生命周期方差进一步分解为客户获取，保留和扩展。上述框架适用于日本度假酒店连锁店的会员客户。结果表明，客户保留是CE方差的主要原因，而客户收购和扩张则影响较小。

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