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The drivers of the great bull stock market of 2015 in China: evidence and policy implications

机译:2015年中国大熊股市的司机:证据和政策影响

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This paper investigates what drove the great bull stock market of 2015 in China. Multiple regression models based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) theory are developed to describe the variation in stock returns using economic fundamentals. The results indicate that during the normal period, the Chinese stock market was sensitive to economic conditions. However, during the bull market, fundamentals could not justify the variation in the stock returns which are significantly different from the conditional predictions based on the multiple regression model which is robust for the normal period. Margin trading was the main driver of the speculative bubble during the bull market from May 2014 to June 2015. As commercial banks are becoming more exposed to the stock market, the volatility of stock prices may have the potential to increase the risk of the financial system and limit the freedom of China to use monetary policy to deal with economic fundamentals.
机译:本文调查了在中国推动了2015年大牛股市的原因。基于套利定价理论(APT)理论的多元回归模型是制定的,以描述使用经济基本面的股票回报的变化。结果表明,在正常时期,中国股市对经济条件敏感。然而,在牛市期间,基本面无法证明股票回报的变化与基于正常时期的多元回归模型的条件预测显着不同。边缘交易是2014年5月至2015年5月的牛市斗牛场所的主要司机。由于商业银行正遭受股票市场,股票价格的波动可能有可能增加金融体系的风险并限制中国的自由利用货币政策处理经济基本面。

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