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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Civil Engineering and Management >USING FUZZY ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND ISM METHODS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP: A CHINA PERSPECTIVE
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USING FUZZY ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND ISM METHODS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP: A CHINA PERSPECTIVE

机译：基于模糊分析网络过程和ISM方法的公私伙伴关系风险评估：中国的视角

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The public-private partnership (PPP) has been adopted globally to meet intensifying demands for public facilities and services. However, PPP projects contain a variety of risks which may lead to project failure. Many researchers have explored risk factors associated with PPP projects in developing countries. However, these investigations have limited their aim to understanding risk impact without considering the interactions of these factors. Hence, to fill this gap, this study proposes a risk assessment method, addressing vital interrelationships and interdependencies. Two methodologies, fuzzy analytic network process (F-ANP) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM), were applied to avoid vagueness and data inaccuracies. The primary contributions of this paper were considering the relationships among risk factors and risk priority; and offering a risk analysis approach based on linguistic scales and fuzzy numbers to reflect different neutral, optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints from expert respondents' judgments. Results from this analysis showed that legal and policy risk was the most influential and interdependent risk, and interest rate risk was the most essential risk in Chinese PPP projects. The ISM structure diagram demonstrated that most of 35 identified risk factors had high driving and dependence power. This study proposed a systematic and practical method to identify and assess PPP risk factors, utilizing an integrated approach consisting of F-ANP and ISM, which has not been used for risk assessment in the construction field. This paper provides a new risk assessment tool and a basis for risk management strategies in the construction engineering and management field.
机译：公私伙伴关系（PPP）已在全球范围内采用，以满足对公共设施和服务日益增长的需求。但是，PPP项目包含各种风险，可能导致项目失败。许多研究人员探索了与发展中国家PPP项目相关的风险因素。但是，这些调查的目的仅限于了解风险影响，而无需考虑这些因素的相互作用。因此，为填补这一空白，本研究提出了一种风险评估方法，以解决重要的相互关系和相互依赖性。运用两种方法，即模糊分析网络过程（F-ANP）和解释性结构建模（ISM）来避免模糊性和数据准确性。本文的主要贡献是考虑了风险因素与风险优先级之间的关系。提供基于语言量表和模糊数的风险分析方法，以反映专家答复者的判断中不同的中性，乐观和悲观观点。分析结果表明，在中国PPP项目中，法律和政策风险是最有影响力和相互依存的风险，而利率风险是最重要的风险。 ISM结构图表明，在35个已识别的危险因素中，大多数具有较高的驱动力和依赖性。这项研究提出了一种系统的，实用的方法来识别和评估PPP风险因素，它采用了一种由F-ANP和ISM构成的综合方法，但尚未在建筑领域进行风险评估。本文提供了一种新的风险评估工具，为建筑工程和管理领域的风险管理策略提供了依据。

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