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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Cleaner Production >Energy and economic impacts of China's 2016 economic investment plan for transport infrastructure construction: An input-output path analysis
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Energy and economic impacts of China's 2016 economic investment plan for transport infrastructure construction: An input-output path analysis

机译：中国2016年交通基础设施建设经济投资计划的能源和经济影响：投入产出路径分析

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This paper builds an input-output model to analyze the energy and economic impacts of the 4.7 trillion-CNY investment projects of the "Three-Year Action Plan for Major Construction Projects of Transportation Infrastructure", which was launched by the Chinese government in 2016. The results show that, from 2016 to 2018, the investment plan could increase China's GDP by 2.39%, 1.30%, and 1.24%, respectively, and the country's energy consumption by 3.98%, 2.35%, and 2.40%, respectively. The top five production sectors could contribute 55% of the GDP growth induced by the plan, and the top three sectors could contribute 83% of the energy consumption growth, indicating that the impact of the investment plan centers mainly on a limited number of sectors. From the view of supply chains, the 20 paths with the largest GDP contribution cover approximately 47% of the GDP growth induced by the plan, and the 20 paths that consume the most energy cover approximately 32% of the energy consumption growth. In these paths, the construction industry is the dominant demand sector, whereas the industry of nonmetallic mineral products, the industry of production and supply of electricity and steam, and the industry of smelting and pressing of metals are the primary supply sectors. In the future, the Chinese government should pay more attention to indirect energy consumption related to the construction industry, and policymakers will also need to set up more effective energy conservation policies for the upstream sectors of the construction industry, such as the sectors providing cement, glass, and steel. (c) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：本文建立了一个投入产出模型，用于分析中国政府于2016年启动的“交通基础设施重大建设项目三年行动计划”的4.7万亿元人民币投资项目的能源和经济影响。结果表明，从2016年到2018年，该投资计划可能分别使中国的GDP增长2.39％，1.30％和1.24％，能源消耗分别增长3.98％，2.35％和2.40％。前五个生产部门可贡献该计划带来的GDP增长的55％，前三个部门可贡献能源消耗增长的83％，这表明投资计划的影响主要集中在有限的部门上。从供应链的角度来看，GDP贡献最大的20条路径约占该计划诱发的GDP增长的47％，而能耗最高的20条路径约占能耗增长的32％。在这些路径中，建筑业是主要的需求部门，而非金属矿产产品业，电力和蒸汽的生产和供应业以及金属冶炼和压制业是主要的供应部门。未来，中国政府应更加重视与建筑业有关的间接能源消耗，决策者还需要针对建筑业的上游行业（例如提供水泥的行业，玻璃和钢。 （c）2019爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。

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