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Strategic decision-support modeling for robust management of the food-energy-water nexus under uncertainty

机译：不确定性下食品 - 能量水Nexus鲁棒管理的战略决策支持

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摘要

Food, energy, and water (FEW) are interconnected pillars that underpin the security of people & rsquo;s livelihoods. In this paper, we propose a decision-support model to better understand and aid management of regional FEW nexus systems under uncertainty. We apply the model to a case study focusing on fluc-tuations in water supply, which significantly affect production in the agriculture and energy sectors in Shanxi Province, China. We use a two-stage, stochastic, chance-constrained programming approach to the proposed spatially detailed cost-minimizing FEW nexus model under demand and natural resource (land and water) constraints. This approach translates the target reliability level (i.e., the probability that the devised solution can satisfy all constraints) into a penalty that has to be paid in the case of their nonfulfillment. On this basis, robust decisions (i.e., production options suitable for a broad variation in certainty of water supply) are derived. Using this approach, we estimate the penalties required to achieve given levels of reliability by incentivizing the deployment of water-saving technologies. For example, our model predicts that water storage would become cost-effective if the penalty for exceeding the available water supply were 2.5 times higher than the current price for industrial water; this would enable at least 40% reliability compared to 18% if the penalty were at the current water price level. Taking advantage of the differences in water intensity of crops in different sites, our model optimizes the reservoir location, which allows water withdrawal by agriculture to be reduced by 1.23%. We also evaluate the benefits of incorporating uncertainty and missed opportunity due to a lack of perfect information. In the case study, we show that the benefits of including uncertainty in the form of the two-stage stochastic programming approach appear to be quite significant, reaching 4% of the total solution costs. Water-importing costs, taxes, and subsidies are instruments that translate into the penalty in this model; the modeling approach presented here can thus be used to inform cost-effective and robust management of the FEW nexus in Shanxi Province, China, and other water-scarce regions around the world.(c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：食品，能量和水（少数）是互连的支柱，用于支撑人民的保证和生计。在本文中，我们提出了决策支持模型，以便在不确定性下更好地理解和援助区域少数Nexus系统的管理。我们将该模型应用于案例研究，重点研究了供水中的氟岩，这显着影响了中国山西省农业和能源领域的生产。我们使用两阶段随机的机会约束的编程方法，以便在需求和自然资源（土地和水）限制下提出的空间详细的成本最小化少数Nexus模型。该方法转换了目标可靠性级别（即，设计的解决方案可以使所有约束能够满足所有约束的概率）进入必须在不合适的情况下支付的罚款。在此基础上，衍生出来的鲁棒决策（即，适用于水供应肯定的广泛变化的生产选项）。使用这种方法，我们估计通过激励节水技术的调整来实现对可靠性水平所需的惩罚。例如，我们的模型预测，如果超出可用供水的罚款比工业用水的当前价格高2.5倍，水储存将变得具有成本效益;如果罚款处于当前的水价水平，这将使至少40％的可靠性与18％相比。利用不同地点作物水强度的差异，我们的模型优化了储层位置，这使得农业戒烟减少1.23％。由于缺乏完美信息，我们还评估了纳入不确定性和错失机会的好处。在案例研究中，我们表明，在两阶段随机编程方法的形式中，包括不确定性的好处似乎非常显着，达到总解决方案成本的4％。进口水费，税收和补贴是转化为此模型处罚的工具;因此，这里提出的建模方法可用于向世界各地山西省少数Nexus提供成本效益和强大的管理。（c）2021 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Cleaner Production》 |2021年第10期|125995.1-125995.14|共14页
  • 作者

    Gao Junlian; Xu Xiangyang; Cao Guiying; Ermoliev Yurii M.; Ermolieva Tatiana Y.; Rovenskaya Elena A.;

  • 作者单位

    China Univ Min & Technol Sch Management Beijing 100083 Peoples R China|China Univ Min & Technol Ctr Resources & Environm Policy Res Beijing 100083 Peoples R China;

    China Univ Min & Technol Sch Management Beijing 100083 Peoples R China|China Univ Min & Technol Ctr Resources & Environm Policy Res Beijing 100083 Peoples R China;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal Schlosspl 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal Schlosspl 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal Schlosspl 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria;

    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal Schlosspl 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria|Lomonosov Moscow State Univ Fac Computat Math & Cybernet Leninskie Gory 1 52 GSP-1 Moscow 119991 Russia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Food-energy-water nexus; Stochastic programming; Robust solutions;

    机译：食品 - 能源水Nexus;随机编程;强大的解决方案;

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