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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earthquake Engineering >EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE SCENARIOS AND SEISMIC HAZARD OF MESSINA, NORTH-EASTERN SICILY (ITALY) AS INFERRED FROM HISTORICAL DATA
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EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE SCENARIOS AND SEISMIC HAZARD OF MESSINA, NORTH-EASTERN SICILY (ITALY) AS INFERRED FROM HISTORICAL DATA

机译：根据历史数据推断，东北梅西纳（意大利）的墨西拿地震破坏情景和地震危险

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摘要

A study aimed at evaluating earthquake damage scenarios and seismic hazard of Messina using historical data, is presented. The analysis of coeval reports allowed us to reconstruct the seismic history of the city and to obtain a homogeneous earthquake site catalogue based on intensity assessed by the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. In the last 1200 years Messina was destroyed once (1908, intensity Ⅹ-Ⅺ EMS) and suffered effects estimated between intensities Ⅶ and Ⅸ EMS many times (e.g. 853, 1169, 1494, 1509, 1599, 1693, 1783, 1894, 1909). Destruction or severe damage which affected the city are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the Messina Straits and Southern Calabria, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to shocks taking place in the seismogenic sources of SE Sicily, Gulf of Patti and Northern Calabria. The damage scenarios of the most relevant events, delineated using coeval urban plans of the city, showed that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by the different soil response. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was obtained by using site observed intensities: The expected intensity in a time span of 50 years (i.e. maximum intensity characterised by at least 10% exceedance probability in 50 years) is Ⅸ EMS; the expected intensity in a time span of 300 years (10% exceedance probability in 300 years) is Ⅹ EMS.
机译：提出了一项旨在使用历史数据评估墨西拿地震破坏情景和地震灾害的研究。对同期报告的分析使我们能够重建城市的地震历史，并根据1998年欧洲宏观地震规模评估的烈度获得同质的地震地点目录。在过去的1200年中，墨西拿遭到了一次破坏（1908年，烈度Ⅹ-Ⅺ EMS）并遭受强度estimated和ⅨEMS之间多次估计的影响（例如853、1169、1494、1509、1599、1693、1783、1894、1909）。影响该市的破坏或严重破坏主要与墨西拿海峡和南部卡拉布里亚州发生的地震有关，而轻微而适度的影响通常是由于西西西里东南部，帕蒂湾和北卡拉布里亚州的震源发生的冲击。最重要事件的破坏情景通过该城市的中世纪城市计划进行了描述，表明破坏分布受土壤响应不同的强烈影响。通过现场观测的强度获得概率地震危险性评估：50年内的预期强度（即以50年内至少有10％的超出概率为特征的最大强度）为ⅨEMS；在300年的时间范围内（300年内超出概率10％）的预期强度为ⅩEMS。

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