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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earthquake Engineering >CAN SITE RESPONSE BE PREDICTED?
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CAN SITE RESPONSE BE PREDICTED?

机译：可以预测网站响应吗？

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摘要

Large modifications of seismic waves are produced by variations of material properties near the Earth's surface and by both surface and buried topography. These modifications, usually referred to as "site response", in general lead to larger motions on soil sites than on rock-like sites. Because the soil amplifications can be as large as a factor of ten, they are important in engineering applications that require the quantitative specification of ground motions. This has been recognised for years by both seismologists and engineers, and it is hard to open an earthquake journal these days without finding an article on site response. What is often missing in these studies, however, are discussions of the uncertainty of the predicted response. A number of purely observational studies demonstrate that ground motions have large site-to-site variability for a single earthquake and large earthquake-location-dependent variability for a single site. This variability makes site-specific, earthquake-specific predictions of site response quite uncertain, even if detailed geotechnical and geological information is available near the site. Predictions of site response for average classes of sites exposed to the motions from many earthquakes can be made with much greater certainty if sufficient empirical observations are available.
机译：地震波的大变化是由于地球表面附近的材料属性变化以及地面和地下地形引起的。这些修改通常称为“位置响应”，通常导致在土壤位置上的运动大于在岩石位置上的运动。由于土壤放大率可能高达10倍，因此在需要定量确定地面运动的工程应用中很重要。多年以来，地震学家和工程师都认识到这一点，而如今，如果找不到关于现场响应的文章，就很难打开地震杂志。然而，这些研究中经常缺少的是对预测响应不确定性的讨论。许多纯粹的观察性研究表明，地震动对单个地震具有较大的站点间差异，而单个地震具有较大的与地震位置有关的可变性。即使现场附近有详细的岩土和地质信息，这种变化也使得不确定现场的地震响应预测变得非常不确定。如果有足够的经验观察结果，则可以更加确定性地预测暴露于许多地震运动中的站点的平均类别的站点响应。

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