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Endogenous borrowing constraints and stagnation in Latin America

机译:拉丁美洲的内生借贷限制和停滞

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The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980's had a major and long-lasting effect on percapita consumption: its level in 2005 was not that different from that in 1980. This paper studies the long stagnation in per-capita consumption that followed the crisis, and its relationship with recessions and sovereign risk, using a small open economy real business cycle model with complete markets, endogenous borrowing limits (limited commitment), endogenous capital accumulation, and domestic productivity and international interest rate shocks. I find that the model does an excellent job at explaining the observed behavior of per-capita consumption and that both the productivity and international interest rate shocks are important. Furthermore, I show that the participation constraint in this kind of representative agent model can bind not only in good times but also in prolonged bad times. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:1980年代的拉丁美洲债务危机对人均消费产生了重大而持久的影响:2005年的水平与1980年的水平没有太大不同。本文研究了危机之后人均消费长期停滞的情况,以及使用具有完整市场,内生借贷限额(有限承诺),内生资本积累,国内生产率和国际利率冲击的小型开放经济实际商业周期模型,分析其与衰退和主权风险之间的关系。我发现该模型在解释观察到的人均消费行为方面表现出色,并且生产率和国际利率冲击都非常重要。此外,我证明了这种代表代理模型中的参与约束不仅可以在好时机绑定,而且可以在长期的坏时机绑定。 (C)2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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