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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Advanced economies and emerging markets: Dissecting the drivers of business cycle synchronization
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Advanced economies and emerging markets: Dissecting the drivers of business cycle synchronization

机译：发达经济体和新兴市场：剖析商业周期同步的驱动力

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What are the divers of business cycle synchronization within and between advanced and emerging economies at the sector level? This question is addressed by analysing international co-movements of value added growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor, region factors, sector factors, country factors, and idiosyncratic components. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods for 9 disaggregated sectors in 5 developed economies (G5) and 19 emerging economies for the 1972–2009 period. The results suggest that, while there exists a common ‘regional business cycle’ in the G5, fluctuations in sectoral value added growth are dominated by country-specific factors in the emerging markets. Despite that, the international factor (the sum of world and sector factors) is more important than the region factor, suggesting that the emerging markets are more synchronized with the G5. A simple regression shows that (i) the world factor would be more important the larger the share of agriculture in output; (ii) in more open economies the sector factor is more important in explaining sectoral value added growth fluctuations; (iii) the region factors is more important the richer and the less volatile the economy. Finally, a comparison of the variance of sectoral value added growth accounted for by each factor from the pre- to the post-globalization period shows convergence of the business cycles within the G5 and EM, respectively. The changes in the contribution of the world, sector and region factor are due to changes in the importance of those factors within sectors. However, for the emerging markets, the fall in the importance of the country factors is dominated by changes in the structural composition of the economies. Therefore, the evolution of the structural composition in the emerging markets could be an important driver for more synchronized business cycles at the regional and international level.
机译：部门一级的先进经济体和新兴经济体之间以及它们之间的商业周期同步有哪些不同？通过在多部门动态因素模型中分析国际增值增长共同运动来解决此问题。该模型包含一个世界因素，区域因素，部门因素，国家因素和特质成分。该模型使用贝叶斯方法对1972-2009年期间5个发达经济体（G5）和19个新兴经济体的9个分类部门进行了估计。结果表明，尽管五国集团存在一个共同的“区域经济周期”，但部门增值增长的波动主要由新兴市场中特定国家的因素主导。尽管如此，国际因素（世界和部门因素的总和）比区域因素更为重要，这表明新兴市场与G5更加同步。一个简单的回归表明：（i）农业在产出中所占的份额越大，世界因素就越重要； （ii）在较为开放的经济体中，行业因素在解释行业增加值增长波动方面更为重要； （iii）地区因素越重要，经济越富裕和越不稳定。最后，对全球化前和全球化后各个时期所占的部门增加值增长方差的比较表明，G5和EM中的商业周期分别趋同。世界，部门和区域因素的贡献的变化是由于这些因素在部门中重要性的变化。但是，对于新兴市场而言，国家因素重要性的下降主要由经济结构的变化所主导。因此，新兴市场结构结构的演变可能是区域和国际层面上更同步的商业周期的重要推动力。

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