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Fiscal policy interventions at the zero lower bound

机译：零下限的财政政策干预

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摘要

We build on a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to explore the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal expansionary shocks during the economic crisis of 2008 in the eurozone. In this setting, we find that the big four eurozone economies (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) can effectively escape from their liquidity trap through fiscal policy interventions caused by government purchases. We estimate the government spending multiplier to be above 1.8 when this policy is associated with a long-term commitment to keeping the nominal interest rate at the zero lower bound, as suggested by Krugman (1998). Notably, the short-term deficit effect on the budget balance can be offset five years after the implementation of a large spending program. We also show that alternative policies with tax cuts that expand the supply do not appear to have the same power in the short run. Moreover, we provide novel empirical evidence that a large government debt renders a government spending policy ineffective.
机译：我们以新的凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型为基础，探讨了欧元区2008年经济危机期间财政扩张冲击带来的宏观经济后果。在这种情况下，我们发现欧元区四大经济体（法国，德国，意大利和西班牙）可以通过政府购买引起的财政政策干预而有效地摆脱其流动性陷阱。正如克鲁格曼（Krugman，1998）所建议的那样，当这项政策与将名义利率保持在零下限的长期承诺相关联时，我们估计政府支出乘数将高于1.8。值得注意的是，对短期预算赤字的影响可以在实施大型支出计划后的五年内抵消。我们还表明，通过减税来扩大供应的替代政策在短期内似乎没有相同的权力。此外，我们提供了新颖的经验证据，表明政府债务过多导致政府支出政策无效。

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