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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Mortgage default in an estimated model of the US housing market
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Mortgage default in an estimated model of the US housing market

机译:美国住房市场估计模型中的抵押违约

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This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译:本文在具有名义和实际刚性的DSGE设置中对房屋部门,抵押和内生违约进行建模。我们使用1981-2006年期间的数据使用贝叶斯技术估算我们的模型。我们分析抵押贷款市场风险的增加如何提高违约率并扩散到整个经济领域,从而造成衰退。在我们的模型中,两种冲击非常适合复制次贷危机和大萧条:抵押贷款风险冲击和住房需求冲击。接下来,我们使用估计的模型来评估减少水下抵押贷款本金的政策。这项政策成功地稳定了抵押贷款市场,并使所有代理人的境况都得到改善。 (C)2017 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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