Managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non-constant background risk

Kevin Berry; David Finnoff; Richard D. Horan; Jason F. Shogren

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Managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non-constant background risk

机译：使用非恒定背景风险管理疾病暴发的内源性风险

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There is a growing concern that risks of disease outbreak and pandemics are increasing over time. We consider optimal investments in prevention before an outbreak using an endogenous risk approach within an optimal control setting. Using the threat of pandemic influenza as an illustrative example, we demonstrate that prevention expenditures are relatively small in comparison to the potential losses facing the USA, and these expenditures need to be flexible and responsive to changes in background risk. Failure to adjust these expenditures to changes in background risk poses a significant threat to social welfare into the future.

机译：随着时间的流逝，人们越来越担心疾病爆发和大流行的风险。我们考虑在最佳控制环境中使用内生风险方法对爆发前的预防进行最佳投资。以大流行性流感的威胁为例，我们证明，与美国面临的潜在损失相比，预防支出相对较小，并且这些支出需要灵活且能应对背景风险的变化。无法根据背景风险的变化调整这些支出，对未来的社会福利构成重大威胁。

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来源
《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》 |2015年第2期|166-179|共14页
作者
Kevin Berry; David Finnoff; Richard D. Horan; Jason F. Shogren;
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作者单位

University of Wyoming, Department of Economics and Finance, 1000 E, University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States;

University of Wyoming, Department of Economics and Finance, 1000 E, University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States;

Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1039, United States;

University of Wyoming, Department of Economics and Finance, 1000 E, University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, United States;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
Endogenous risk; Prevention schedule; Optimal control; Infectious disease;

机译：内生风险;预防时间表;最佳控制;传染病;

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Managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non-constant background risk

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