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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules
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Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules

机译：趋势增长和了解货币政策规则

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The paper examines the effect of trend productivity growth on the determinacy and learnability of equilibria under alternative monetary policy rules. Under zero trend inflation we show that the economic structure is isomorphic to that of Bullard and Mitra (2002) and show that under a policy rule that responds to current period inflation and output a higher trend growth rate relaxes the conditions for determinacy and learnability. Results are mixed for other policy rules. Under the expectations-based rule, trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy but it relaxes the conditions for learnability. Under the lagged-data-based rule, trend growth tightens the conditions for determinacy and learnability. Our analysis shows that lower (higher) trend growth has similar effects as higher (lower) trend inflation in the sense of making inflation more (less) forward-looking. Thus, our results complement previous studies on the role of high trend inflation as a cause of macroeconomic volatility in the U.S. in the 1970s, as this period was also characterized by productivity growth slowdown.
机译：本文研究了在替代货币政策规则下趋势生产率增长对均衡性的确定性和可学习性的影响。在零趋势通货膨胀下，我们表明经济结构与Bullard and Mitra（2002）的同构，并且表明在响应当前通货膨胀并输出较高趋势增长率的政策规则下，放宽了确定性和可学习性的条件。其他政策规则的结果则参差不齐。在基于期望的规则下，趋势增长收紧了确定性的条件，但放宽了可学习性的条件。在基于滞后数据的规则下，趋势增长收紧了确定性和可学习性的条件。我们的分析表明，从使通货膨胀更具前瞻性的意义上讲，较低（较高）趋势增长与较高（较低）趋势通胀具有相似的效果。因此，我们的结果补充了先前的研究，即有关高趋势通货膨胀在1970年代美国宏观经济动荡中的作用，因为这一时期的特征还在于生产率增长放缓。

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