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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers
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New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers

机译：新凯恩斯主义与旧凯恩斯主义政府支出乘数

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摘要

Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically estimated and widely cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small with GDP and employment effects only one-sixth as large and with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller. We investigate the sensitivity of our findings with regard to the response of monetary policy, the zero bound on nominal interest rates and the inclusion of an empirically relevant degree of rule-of-thumb behaviour in the new Keynesian model. In addition, we relate our findings using estimated structural macroeconomic models to the recent literature using reduced-form regression techniques.
机译：对财政政策的重新关注增加了使用定量模型来评估政策。由于建模的不确定性，至关重要的是，政策评估必须对替代假设具有鲁棒性。我们发现，目前实际用于评估财政政策刺激方案的模型并不健全。根据经验估计和广泛引用的新凯恩斯模型，政府支出乘数比这些旧凯恩斯模型小得多。估计的刺激作用极小，其GDP和就业影响只有其六分之一，而私营部门的就业影响可能更小。在新的凯恩斯模型中，我们调查了我们的发现对货币政策的反应，名义利率的零界限以及经验上相关的经验法则行为的敏感性。此外，我们使用估计的结构宏观经济模型将我们的发现与使用简化形式回归技术的最新文献相关联。

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