Learning and optimal monetary policy

Richard Dennis; Federico Ravenna

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Learning and optimal monetary policy

机译：学习与最佳货币政策

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摘要

To conduct policy efficiently, central banks must use available data to infer, or learn, the relevant structural relationships in the economy. However, because a central bank's policy affects economic outcomes, the chosen policy may help or hinder its efforts to learn. This paper examines whether real-time learning allows a central bank to learn the economy's underlying structure and studies the impact that learning has on the performance of optimal policies under a variety of learning environments. Our main results are as follows. First, when monetary policy is formulated as an optimal discretionary targeting rule, we find that the rational expectations equilibrium and the optimal policy are real-time learnable. This result is robust to a range of assumptions concerning private-sector learning behavior. Second, when policy is set with discretion, learning can lead to outcomes that are better than if the model parameters are known. Finally, if the private sector is learning, then unannounced changes to the policy regime, particularly changes to the inflation target, can raise policy loss considerably.

机译：为了有效地执行政策，中央银行必须使用可用数据来推断或学习经济中的相关结构关系。但是，由于中央银行的政策会影响经济成果，因此选择的政策可能有助于或阻碍其学习努力。本文研究了实时学习是否可以使中央银行学习经济的基础结构，并研究在各种学习环境下学习对最佳政策绩效的影响。我们的主要结果如下。首先，当将货币政策制定为最优自由裁量目标规则时，我们发现理性预期均衡和最优政策是实时可学习的。该结果对于涉及私营部门学习行为的一系列假设是可靠的。其次，当政策是自由决定的时，学习可以产生比已知模型参数更好的结果。最后，如果私营部门正在学习，那么对政策制度的未经宣布的变化，特别是对通货膨胀目标的变化，可能会大大增加政策损失。

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来源
《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》 |2008年第6期|p.1964-1994|共31页
作者
Richard Dennis; Federico Ravenna;
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作者单位

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market St, CA 94105, USA;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类 f;
关键词
learning; optimal policy; transparency;

机译：学习;最优政策;透明度;

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1. Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia [J] . Bask Mikael, Proano Christian R. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control . 2016,第auga期

机译：具有成本通道和通胀惯性的新凯恩斯模型中具有学习和结构不确定性的最优货币政策
2. Learning and loss functions: comparing optimal and operational monetary policy rules [J] . Eric Gaus, Srikanth Ramamurthy International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation . 2014,第1a2期

机译：学习和损失功能：比较最佳和操作性货币政策规则
3. Optimal monetary policy and model selection in a real-time learning environment [J] . Federico Ravenna Economics letters . 2012,第3期

机译：实时学习环境中的最优货币政策和模型选择
4. Fiscal and Monetary Policy in optimal and non-optimal currency areas: The discussion between austerity and countercyclical policy. [C] . Carlos Encinas-Ferrer International Conference on Applied Economics . 2015

机译：最优和非最优货币领域的财政和货币政策：紧缩和反周期政策之间的讨论。
5. MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN A GROWING ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS OF OPTIMAL MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY, MONETARY AND FISCAL NEUTRALITY, AND CAPITAL INTENSIVENESS. [D] . NEZU, EIJI. 1973

机译：增长中的经济中的货币和财政政策：最优货币和财政政策，货币和财政中性以及资本密集度分析。
6. Designing an Optimum Fiscal Policy for Tobacco to Maximise the Tax Revenue Social Savings and the Net Monetary Benefits in Sri Lanka [O] . Sathira Kasun Perera, Bharat Phani Vaikuntam, Denny John, 2020

机译：为烟草制定最佳财政政策以最大限度地提高税收收入社会储蓄和斯里兰卡的净货币福利
7. Financial Development and the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Do the distributional consequences of monetary policy depend on the extent of financial development? Should optimal monetary policy vary across countries? In order to answer these questions, we develop a monetary growth production model with heterogeneous agents. In our economy, optimal policy needs to weigh the effects of policy across two groups — capital owners and individuals who hold liquid assets. While banks help limit the exposure to inflation, there are limits because money alleviates the frictions of private information and limited communication. In this environment, we compare two economies that are identical in every aspect except for their level of financial development. In a country with limited financial development, a stock market is absent. In the other, an equity market is active. In either economy, inflation adversely affects capital formation and output. Individuals who hold liquid assets are always adversely affected by inflation, but the attitude of capital owners depends on the level of financial development. In particular, in the presence of a stock market, the impact of inflation on the welfare of capital owners is non-monotonic. Nevertheless, optimal monetary policy is always more conservative at higher levels of financial development. [O] . TINA M. Edgar A. Ghossoub, TINA M. Robert R. Reedy 100

机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

Learning and optimal monetary policy

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