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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Growth >Tariffs and economic growth in the first era of globalization
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Tariffs and economic growth in the first era of globalization

机译：全球化第一个时代的关税和经济增长

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摘要

Are liberal trade policies good for growth? Sceptics often point to the late nineteenth century as a period when protectionist policies promoted economic development. This apparent blueprint for the benefits of protectionism paradoxically comes from a period that is often described as the first era of globalization. In this paper we reassess the empirical evidence about the relationship between tariffs and growth between 1870 and 1914. Our key findings challenge the idea that in the nineteenth century countries that raised tariffs thereby increased their own growth rate. Using new and improved data and employing a whole portfolio of econometric tests we do not find evidence that increased protectionism raised the rate of individual countries’ growth. While some positive cross-sectional correlation exists between tariffs and growth, this may reflect unobserved country traits rather than a causal relation. There is equally little evidence that other external factors, such as real exchange rates and terms of trade changes, were key drivers of economic performance. A paradox of this first era of globalization is not that free trade was bad for growth; it is that international economic policies seem to have mattered little to countries’ growth trajectories.
机译：自由贸易政策是否有利于增长？持怀疑态度的人通常认为，十九世纪末是贸易保护主义政策促进经济发展的时期。这种明显的贸易保护主义蓝图自相矛盾，来自一个时期，通常被称为全球化的第一个时代。在本文中，我们重新评估了1870年至1914年之间关税与增长之间关系的经验证据。我们的主要发现对以下观点提出了质疑：在19世纪，提高关税的国家因此提高了自身的增长率。使用新的和经过改进的数据，并使用整个计量经济测试的方法组合，我们没有发现证据表明贸易保护主义提高会提高单个国家的增长率。尽管关税与增长之间存在着一些正的横截面相关性，但这可能反映了未被观察到的国家特征，而不是因果关系。同样，几乎没有证据表明其他外部因素，例如实际汇率和贸易条件变化，是经济表现的主要驱动力。全球化的第一个时代的悖论不是自由贸易不利于增长。只是国际经济政策似乎对国家的增长轨迹影响不大。

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