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首页> 外文期刊>The Journal of Economic Inequality >Poverty dynamics and graduation from conditional cash transfers: a transition model for Mexico's Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program
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Poverty dynamics and graduation from conditional cash transfers: a transition model for Mexico's Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program

机译：条件现金转移的贫困动态和毕业：墨西哥Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera计划的过渡模型

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摘要

The effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on poverty and well-being have been widely studied. However, there is limited knowledge on how a CCT should respond to the dynamics of poverty. How should program administrators treat beneficiaries that exit poverty in period t-1, but exhibit a high probability of falling into poverty in period t? This is a relevant, yet unanswered question. This paper provides an analysis of the implications of poverty dynamics in the implementation of graduation strategies of CCTs, taking Mexico's Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera (POP) program as reference case. We propose a Markovian transition model that allows to control for unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, and attrition. The model provides a framework for a generic graduation condition that can be applied to cash transfer programs that follow well-defined eligibility income thresholds. Overall, we find that only one-third of program beneficiaries that were poor in 2002 exhibited low probabilities of becoming poor in 2009-12 and therefore could be regarded as true 'graduates' of the program. We also find that the 'recertification' process of POP-which takes place every three years-would be more efficient if it took place every 3.7 and 5.1 years in urban and rural areas, respectively.
机译：有条件现金转移（CCTS）对贫困和幸福的影响得到了广泛研究。但是，关于CCT如何应对贫困动态的知识有限。计划管理员如何处理在T-1期间退出贫困的受益人，但在T期间表现出陷入贫困的高可能性？这是一个相关但未答造的问题。本文介绍了贫困动态对慢率策略实施中CCTS毕业策略的影响，将墨西哥的Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera（POP）计划作为参考案例。我们提出了一个马尔可维亚过渡模型，可以控制不观察到的异质性，国家依赖和磨损。该模型为通用毕业条件提供了一种框架，可应用于遵循明确定义的资格收入阈值的现金传输计划。总体而言，我们发现，2002年只有三分之一的计划受益者，2009 - 12年度较低的概率表现出较低的概率，因此可以被视为该计划的真实“毕业生”。我们还发现，每三年的弹出的“重新认证”过程分别在城乡在城市和农村地区的每次3.7和5.1年内进行了更高效。

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