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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Literature >The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models
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The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models

机译：气候变化潜在影响的经济学模型结构：将总的低估风险嫁接到已经狭窄的科学模型上

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摘要

Scientists describe the scale of the risks from unmanaged climate change as potentially immense. However, the scientific models, because they omit key factors that are hard to capture precisely, appear to substantially underestimate these risks. Many economic models add further gross underassessment of risk because the assumptions built into the economic modeling on growth, damages and risks, come close to assuming directly that the impacts and costs will be modest and close to excluding the possibility of catastrophic outcomes. A new generation of models is needed in all three of climate science, impact and economics with a still stronger focus on lives and livelihoods, including the risks of large-scale migration and conflicts.
机译：科学家将不受控制的气候变化带来的风险规模描述为潜在的巨大范围。但是，由于科学模型忽略了难以精确捕获的关键因素，因此它们似乎大大低估了这些风险。许多经济模型进一步加重了对风险的总体低估，因为建立在经济模型中的关于增长，损害和风险的假设接近于直接假设影响和成本将是适度的，并且几乎排除了灾难性结果的可能性。气候科学，影响和经济学这三个领域都需要新一代的模型，而且还要更加关注生活和生计，包括大规模移民和冲突的风险。

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