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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Management >Optimal timing of multiple investment decisions in a wood value chain: A real options approach
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Optimal timing of multiple investment decisions in a wood value chain: A real options approach

机译：木价值链中多项投资决策的最佳时间：真实选择方法

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摘要

A new reductive catalytic fractionation biorefinery process (RCF) is currently being developed transforming wood into high-value end-products. RCF is considered to be in the pilot stage with a technology readiness level of 5-6. Apart from the RCF-process characteristics, the economic feasibility also depends on the investment decisions that are made upstream and downstream within the wood value chain, increasing the level of uncertainty. Two investment options within the value chain are considered: an option to invest in harvesting equipment and an option to invest in the RCF. To understand the impact of multiple sources of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an innovative RCF-driven wood value chain, an analytical two-factor real options model is presented, accounting for correlated cost and price uncertainties. Two different scenarios, separated and united investments in harvesting equipment and RCF, are analyzed. In both scenarios, market uncertainty postpones investment in comparison to the traditional NPV approach. When both investments are considered separately, the investment in RCF is expected to be earlier than the investment in harvesting equipment. When both investment decisions are united, the probability of investment increases. The study reveals that RCF has the potential to stimulate investments from different investors, -upstream and midstream-, within the wood value chain. Besides, the introduced real options model proofs its ability to assess the economic feasibility of innovative technologies (e.g RCF) individually or within the value chain, taking into account multiple sources of uncertainty.
机译：目前正在将新的还原催化分级生物填充方法（RCF）转化为高价值的最终产品。 RCF被认为是在试验阶段，技术准备水平为5-6。除了RCF工艺特征外，经济可行性还取决于木质价值链上游和下游的投资决策，增加不确定性水平。考虑了价值链中的两种投资选项：投资收获设备的选项和投资RCF的选项。要了解多种不确定性对投资于创新的RCF驱动木本价值链的决定的影响，提出了一个分析的双因子实物选择模型，占相关成本和价格不确定性。分析了两种不同的场景，分离和联合投资收获设备和RCF。在这两种情况下，与传统的NPV方法相比，市场不确定性推迟投资。当两项投资分别考虑时，预计RCF的投资将早于收获设备的投资。当投资决策都是团结的，投资的可能性增加。该研究表明，RCF有可能刺激在木价值链内的不同投资者，-Upstream和中游的投资。此外，介绍的真实选择模型证明了其在价值链中单独或在价值链内评估创新技术（例如RCF）的经济可行性，同时考虑到多种不确定性来源。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Environmental Management》 |2021年第15期|112590.1-112590.10|共10页
  • 作者

    Maxim Tschulkow; Tine Compemolle; Steven Van Passel;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Engineering Management University of Antwerp Prinsstraat 13 2000 Antwerp Belgium;

    Department of Engineering Management University of Antwerp Prinsstraat 13 2000 Antwerp Belgium Geological Survey of Belgium - Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences Jennerstraat 13 1000 Brussels Belgium;

    Department of Engineering Management University of Antwerp Prinsstraat 13 2000 Antwerp Belgium Nanolab Centre of Excellence Prinsstraat 13 2000 Antwerp Belgium;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Real options analysis; Multiple correlated uncertainties; Biorefinery; Wood value chain; Wood valorization;

    机译：真实选择分析;多重相关的不确定性;生物料理;木价值链;木材储价化;

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