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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Science and Health. A, Toxic/Hazardous Substances & Environmental Engineering >Comparing deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments for sites contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
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Comparing deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments for sites contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

机译：比较被多环芳烃（PAH）污染的场所的确定性和概率性风险评估

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摘要

Deterministic risk assessments provide a single point estimate of risk at a site of concern, while probabilistic risk assessment methods generate a range of values from probability distribution functions (PDFs). This study compares deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods for two different sites using uncertainty analysis and evaluates the use of toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in each method. The use of TEFs allowed more of the PAHs to be included which resulted in higher risk estimates for both adults and children at both study sites. Exposure factor variability generated greater uncertainty in risk estimates than sample heterogeneity or toxicity estimates. TEFs allowed for a more complete representation of the toxicity contributions from PAH species present at the study sites. Exposure factor distributions together with TEF estimations for toxicity of PAH species provide an assessment that can reduce and account for uncertainty. Probabilistic risk estimates provide a sensible improvement to deterministic risk estimates by generating a range of risk values, along with an average estimate and the degree of conservatism of those estimates.
机译：确定性风险评估提供了关注点风险的单点估计，而概率风险评估方法则根据概率分布函数（PDF）生成了一系列值。本研究使用不确定性分析比较了两个不同地点的确定性和概率风险评估方法，并评估了每种方法中多环芳烃（PAH）的毒性当量因子（TEF）的使用。 TEF的使用允许包括更多的PAH，这导致两个研究地点的成人和儿童的风险估计更高。与样本异质性或毒性估计相比，暴露因子的可变性在风险估计中产生了更大的不确定性。 TEF可以更完整地表示研究地点存在的PAH物种的毒性贡献。暴露因子分布以及对PAH物种毒性的TEF估计提供了可以减少和解决不确定性的评估。概率风险估计通过生成一系列风险值以及平均估计和这些估计的保守程度，可以对确定性风险估计进行合理的改进。

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