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Consumer well-being in a future of accelerating novelty

机译：未来不断创新的消费者福祉

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Novel goods and ideas are introduced to today's consumers with increasing frequency. This phenomenon is perhaps most notable in the apparel industry, which in recent decades has seen the rise of "fast fashion" and an accelerating rate of novel style introductions from semi-annual to semi-weekly. In this paper I study the potential for this type of accelerating novelty to have a negative impact on consumer well-being. I analyze a simple theoretical model of consumer behavior in which consumers with a preference for novelty decide how fast to replace their fashion goods before and after an innovation which accelerates the rate at which new goods become available. In the basic model, where consumers update their goods based on their intrinsic preference for novelty, the novelty-accelerating innovation is not welfare-decreasing. However, when the model is extended in realistic ways, I find that there are at least three conditions under which the innovation may decrease welfare by increasing the extent of sub-optimal replacement: if there are external costs of updating to a newer good; if the consumers are boundedly rational and exhibit present bias; or if consumers' replacement decisions reflect an arms race for social status. My results in these model extensions provide an economic foundation for rising popular concern about undesirable social effects of "fast fashion." I also discuss the implications of these results for future patterns of consumption, which are likely to reflect still more accelerated novelty and possibly the expansion of fashion behavior to a broader range of consumption settings.
机译：新颖的商品和创意被越来越多地介绍给当今的消费者。这种现象也许在服装业中最为显着，在最近几十年中，“快速时尚”的兴起以及新颖风格的引入从半年到半周的加速增长。在本文中，我研究了这种类型的加速新颖性对消费者福祉产生负面影响的潜力。我分析了一种简单的消费者行为理论模型，在该模型中，偏爱新颖性的消费者决定了在创新之前和之后以多快的速度更换其时尚商品，从而加快了新商品的普及速度。在基本模型中，当消费者根据对新颖性的内在偏好来更新商品时，促进新颖性的创新不会减少福利。但是，当以现实的方式扩展模型时，我发现至少在三个条件下，创新可能会通过增加次优替代品的程度来降低福利：是否存在更新到新商品的外部成本；如果消费者是有限理性的，并且表现出当前的偏见；或者消费者的更换决定反映了争取社会地位的军备竞赛。我在这些模型扩展中的结果为人们日益关注“快速时尚”的不良社会影响提供了经济基础。我还将讨论这些结果对未来消费模式的影响，这些消费模式可能会反映出更多的新奇事物，也可能反映出时尚行为扩展到更广泛的消费环境。

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