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Intertemporal propensity to consume

机译：跨期消费倾向

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摘要

Cross-sectionally estimated Engel curves tend to exhibit shapes that imply ultimately decreasing marginal propensities to consume as income rises. This suggests at first sight a tendency to slow down in private consumption. This tendency has to be reconsidered taking into account the fact that Engel curves usually shift significantly over time. We introduce the notion of "intertemporal propensity to consume" to shed more light on the drivers and patterns of the evolution of Engel curves. Using this notion, we are able to identify and measure the direction of the expansion path of consumption as time goes by, while controlling for household characteristics and price levels. Using German household data, we show that, over time, the intertemporal propensity to consume systematically offsets the consumption paths implied by the marginal propensity to consume that is derived cross-sectionally at one point in time. We claim that this difference between marginal and intertemporal propensity to consume should be ascribed to variations in the socioeconomic structures that occur over time and that may be linked both to the supply side (innovation and technical change) and the demand side (learning dynamics of consumers). We also show that changes in relative prices play a minor role in the evolution of Engel curves.
机译：横截面估计的恩格尔曲线趋向于呈现出一些形状，这些形状暗示着随着收入的增加最终减少的边际消费倾向。乍一看，这表明私人消费趋于放缓。考虑到恩格尔曲线通常会随时间发生明显变化这一事实，必须重新考虑这种趋势。我们引入“跨时期消费倾向”的概念，以更加了解恩格尔曲线演变的驱动因素和模式。使用此概念，我们可以随着时间的流逝确定并衡量消费扩展路径的方向，同时控制住户特征和价格水平。使用德国家庭数据，我们发现，随着时间的流逝，跨时期的消费倾向会系统性地抵消边际消费倾向所隐含的消费路径，该边际消费倾向是在某个时间点横截面得出的。我们认为，边际和跨期消费倾向之间的差异应归因于社会经济结构的变化，这种变化随时间而发生，并且可能与供应方（创新和技术变革）和需求方（消费者的学习动态）相关。 ）。我们还表明，相对价格的变化在恩格尔曲线的演变中起较小的作用。

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