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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology >Predicting climate-induced changes in population dynamics of invasive species in a marine epibenthic community
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Predicting climate-induced changes in population dynamics of invasive species in a marine epibenthic community

机译：预测气候引起的海洋表皮群落入侵物种种群动态的变化

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As climate change and invasive species, both individually and in concert, continue to elicit responses in native communities, we are challenged with finding strategies for predicting the strength of such impacts. The effects of invasive species are often determined by their abundance, and warming temperatures can alter species' demographic rates and, thus, population growth rates. Here, we combined lab experiments, field experiments and observations, and population modeling to predict the population dynamics of three marine invaders in response to climate warming. We projected population growth rate at an ambient and an increased temperature predicted by climate-change scenarios ( + 4℃) for three invasive species in the epibenthic fouling community of Bodega Harbor, California, USA: the tunicates Bottylloides violaceus and Botryllus schlosseri and the bryozoan Watersipora subtorquata. There was a positive effect of temperature on population growth rate for B. schlosseri, and further analysis revealed that this predicted increase was driven by warming effects on settler growth rate and adult fecundity. Increases indicated for non-native marine fouling species are especially pertinent when considering the potential cascading effects on community composition and functioning that can result from species invasions. Our results highlight the potential for marked increases in an invasive species in response to climate change, as well as the promising role that population modeling can play in elucidating the mechanisms of such responses.
机译：随着气候变化和外来入侵物种（无论是单独还是协同作用）继续在当地社区引起人们的反响，我们面临着寻找可预测此类影响强度的战略的挑战。入侵物种的影响通常取决于它们的丰度，变暖的温度可以改变物种的人口统计率，从而改变种群增长率。在这里，我们结合实验室实验，现场实验和观察以及种群建模来预测三个海洋入侵者响应气候变暖的种群动态。我们预测了在美国加利福尼亚州博德加港的表皮污垢群落中三种入侵物种在环境变化和温度升高（根据气候变化情景（+ 4℃）预测的人口增长率）：被膜虫Bottylloides violaceus和Botryllus schlosseri以及苔藓虫桃金娘（Watersipora subtorquata）。温度对schlosseri的种群增长有积极影响，进一步的分析表明，这种预测的增长是由对定居者生长率和成年繁殖力的变暖作用驱动的。当考虑到物种入侵可能对社区组成和功能造成的潜在连锁影响时，非本地海洋污染物种的增加特别有意义。我们的结果强调了应对气候变化的入侵物种显着增加的潜力，以及种群模型在阐明此类响应机制中可以发挥的有希望作用。

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