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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Financial Economic Policy >Equity market-related economic uncertainty and the 'economic contagion phenomenon'
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Equity market-related economic uncertainty and the 'economic contagion phenomenon'

机译：股权与市场相关的经济不确定性和“经济传染现象”

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摘要

Purpose - This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects traditionally presumed to emanate from dominant economies toward trading partners. Design/methodology/approach - The study used the Toda-Yamamoto Wald test approach to bi-variate causality analysis. Findings - This study verified the existence of the economic contagion phenomenon; Estimated empirical evidence failed to fully support the presumption that such contagion effects mostly emanates from dominant economies toward trading partners, all things being equal. For instance, although this study found significant economic contagion effects emanating from the US economy toward the Chinese economy, the authors also detected six different uni-directional causal interactions with the direction of causality emanating from trading partners toward the US economy. Originality/value - The uniqueness of this study stems not from its verification of the economic contagion phenomenon using equity market-related economic uncertainty as the potential contagion. This study fills a gap in the present literature by focusing on the happenings in the equity market as the potential candidate of the economic contagion phenomenon between a dominant economy and its key trading partners.
机译：目的 - 本研究审查了主导经济及其贸易伙伴之间的潜在因果关系，验证了传统上推向贸易伙伴的主导经济体的发出经济传播效应。设计/方法/方法 - 该研究采用了Toda-Yamamoto Wald试验方法对双变异因果关系分析。调查结果 - 本研究核实了经济传染现象的存在;估计的经验证据未能完全支持推定，即这种蔓延效应大多来自主导经济对贸易伙伴的融合，所有事情都是平等的。例如，虽然这项研究发现了从美国经济向中国经济发出的重大经济传染性效应，但作者还发现了六种不同的单向因果关系与从贸易伙伴到美国经济的因果关系方向。原创性/价值 - 本研究的独特性源于使用股权市场相关的经济不确定性作为潜在传染的经济传染现象的核实。本研究通过关注股票市场的发生作为潜在的经济蔓延现象与其主要贸易伙伴之间的潜在候选人来填补本文的差距。

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