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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science: Bridging Asia and the World >A generalized Bass model for predicting the sales patterns of motion pictures having seasonality and herd behavior Bass
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A generalized Bass model for predicting the sales patterns of motion pictures having seasonality and herd behavior Bass

机译：预测具有季节性和从众行为的电影销售模式的广义Bass模型

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摘要

Marketing scholars have expended much effort in developing quantitative models that forecast box office results, but performance has been below their expectations because of the failure to notice behavioral factors, such as herd behavior. Prior studies also have relied on weekly box office data, not daily data, and thus have failed to provide marketers with sufficient insights necessary for making key decisions. This paper offers a box office forecasting model that overcomes these weaknesses: a generalized Bass model (GBM) that reflects both daily seasonality and herd behavior. The daily box office data of 40 movies released in Korea are used for the analysis. In all, three models are compared: a GBM that takes into consideration both herd behavior and seasonality, a GBM considering seasonality only, and an exponential model as a benchmark model. The estimation results show that the proposed model performs better than the others in terms of model fitness and predictability. , , , —— Bass , , , , , 40 GBM Bass , GBM 14, 35, ,  Adjusted-R2 , GBM-SH  0.963, GBM-S (0.958),  EXP-S (0.907), GBM-S EXP-S , GBM-SH  GBM-S,  14  35 , EXP-S 102.7%,  GBM-SH  12.6%, GBM-S  15.5%, , , , EXP-S , EXP-S , EXP-S , , GBM-S GBM-SH , , GBM-SH  GBM-S, , , GBM-SH , , , GBM , , , ,  Bass  Bass , , , , , , , , , , , , , """", 2, , View full textDownload full textKeywordsdemand forecast, box office, movie marketing, seasonality, herd behaviorKeywords, , , , Related var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21639159.2012.721214
机译：市场营销学者已花费大量精力来开发用于预测票房成绩的定量模型，但由于未能注意到行为因素（例如从众行为），因此绩效一直低于他们的预期。先前的研究还依赖于每周的票房数据，而不是每日的数据，因此未能为营销人员提供做出关键决策所需的足够洞察力。本文提供了克服这些弱点的票房预测模型：反映日常季节性和畜群行为的广义巴斯模型（GBM）。分析了在韩国发行的40部电影的每日票房数据。总共比较了三个模型：GBM同时考虑了牧群行为和季节性； GBM仅考虑了季节性；以及指数模型作为基准模型。估计结果表明，所提模型在模型适应性和可预测性方面均优于其他模型。 ，，，，，，，，，，，40 GBM低音，GBM 14，35，，调整R2，GBM-SH 0.963，GBM-S（0.958），EXP-S（0.907 ），GBM-S EXP-S，GBM-SH的GBM-S，14的35，EXP-S的102.7％，GBM-SH的12.6％，GBM-S的15.5％，``、、、 EXP-S， EXP-S，EXP-S，，GBM-S GBM-SH，，GBM-SH GBM-S，，，GBM-SH，，，GBMÂ，，，，，低音Bass低音，，，，，，，，，， 、、、、、、“”“ 、、、、、、、、、、、、、查看全文下载关键字需求预测，票房，电影营销，季节性，牧群行为关键字、、、、、相关的变量addthis_config = {ui_cobrand：“泰勒和弗朗西斯在线”，service_compact： “ citeulike，netvibes，twitter，technorati，美味，linkedin，facebook，stumbleupon，digg，google，更多”，发布：“ ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b”};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21639159.2012.721214

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