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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of health economics >What to expect when you are expecting: Are health care consumers forward-looking?
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What to expect when you are expecting: Are health care consumers forward-looking?

机译：您所期望的期望：医疗保健消费者是否具有前瞻性？

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A fundamental question in health insurance markets is how do health care consumers dynamically optimize their medical utilization under non-linear insurance contracts? Our paper tests the neoclassical prediction that a fully forward-looking agent only responds to their expected end-of-year price. Our unique identification strategy studies families during the year of childbirth who will likely satisfy their annual deductible, thereby knowing their expected end-of-year price. We find that during the year of a childbirth, fathers increase medical spending by 11% per month after their deductible is satisfied, rejecting the null of fully forward-looking consumers. This behavior cannot be explained by fathers increasing utilization in response to the childbirth itself. Furthermore, this myopia translates to a 21-24% decrease in total annual medical spending, relative to the counterfactual of fully forward-looking behavior, and is concentrated in elective procedures; we find no response in low value or urgent care. Our findings suggest the need for modeling non-linear incentives while accounting for myopic behavior when studying the medical utilization responses to health insurance. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：健康保险市场中的一个基本问题是，医疗保健消费者如何根据非线性保险合同动态地优化他们的医疗利用率？我们的论文检验了新古典主义的预测，即一个完全具有前瞻性的经纪人只会对他们预期的年终价格做出反应。我们独特的识别策略可研究分娩年内可能满足其年度自付额的家庭，从而了解其预期的年终价格。我们发现，在分娩的那一年，父亲在满足自付额后每月将医疗支出增加11％，从而拒绝了完全具有前瞻性的消费者。父亲无法根据分娩本身的增加利用率来解释这种行为。此外，相对于完全前瞻性行为的事实，这种近视意味着每年的医疗总支出减少了21-24％，并且集中在选修程序上。我们发现低价或紧急护理没有任何反应。我们的发现表明，在研究医疗保险对健康保险的反应时，有必要在对非线性激励进行建模的同时考虑近视行为。 （C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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