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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of health economics >Watchfully waiting: Medical intervention as an optimal investment decision
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Watchfully waiting: Medical intervention as an optimal investment decision

机译：谨慎等待：将医疗干预作为最佳投资决策

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Watchfully waiting involves monitoring a patient's health state over time and deciding whether to undertake a medical intervention, or to postpone it and continue observing the patient. In this paper, we consider the timing of medical intervention as an optimal stopping problem. The development of the patient's health state in the absence of intervention follows a stochastic process (geometric Brownian motion). Spontaneous recovery occurs in case the absorbing state of "good health" is reached. We determine optimal threshold values for initiating the intervention, and derive comparative statics results with respect to the model parameters. In particular, an increase in the degree of uncertainty over the patient's development in most cases makes waiting more attractive. However, this may not hold if the patient's health state has a tendency to improve. The model can be extended to allow for risk aversion and for sudden, Poisson-type shocks to the patient's health state.
机译：耐心等待包括随着时间的推移监视患者的健康状况，并决定是进行医疗干预，还是推迟进行医疗干预并继续观察患者。在本文中，我们将医疗干预的时机视为最佳的停止问题。在没有干预的情况下，患者健康状况的发展遵循随机过程（几何布朗运动）。如果达到“健康”的吸收状态，就会自发恢复。我们确定用于启动干预措施的最佳阈值，并得出关于模型参数的比较静态结果。尤其是，在大多数情况下，患者发展过程中不确定性的增加会增加等待的吸引力。但是，如果患者的健康状况有改善的趋势，这可能不成立。可以扩展该模型以允许规避风险以及对患者的健康状况产生突然的Poisson型电击。

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