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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of health economics >Long-run effects on longevity of a nutritional shock early in life: The Dutch Potato famine of 1846-1847
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Long-run effects on longevity of a nutritional shock early in life: The Dutch Potato famine of 1846-1847

机译：对生命早期的营养休克寿命的长期影响：1846-1847年的荷兰马铃薯饥荒

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Nutritional conditions in utero and during infancy may causally affect health and mortality during childhood, adulthood, and at old ages. This paper investigates whether exposure to a nutritional shock in early life negatively affects survival at older ages, using individual data. Nutritional conditions are captured by exposure to the Potato famine in the Netherlands in 1846-1847, and by regional and temporal variation in market prices of potato and rye. The data cover the lifetimes of a random sample of Dutch individuals born between 1812 and 1902 and provide individual information on life events and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. First we non-parametrically compare the total and residual lifetimes of individuals exposed and not exposed to the famine in utero and/or until age 1. Next, we estimate survival models in which we control for individual characteristics and additional (early life) determinants of mortality. We find strong evidence for long-run effects of exposure to the Potato famine. The results are stronger for boys than for girls. Boys and girls lose on average 4, respectively 2.5 years of life after age 50 after exposure at birth to the Potato famine. Lower social classes appear to be more affected by early life exposure to the Potato famine than higher social classes. These results confirm the mechanism linking early life (nutritional) conditions to old-age mortality. Finally, higher food prices at birth appear to reduce later life mortality of children of farmers from higher social classes. We interpret this as an income effect.
机译：子宫内和婴儿期的营养状况可能会影响儿童，成年和老年期的健康和死亡率。本文使用个人数据调查了在早期生活中遭受营养休克是否会对老年人的生存产生负面影响。营养状况是通过1846-1847年荷兰发生的马铃薯饥荒以及马铃薯和黑麦市场价格的区域和时间变化来捕获的。数据涵盖了1812年至1902年之间出生的荷兰人随机样本的生命周期，并提供了有关生活事件以及人口和社会经济特征的个人信息。首先，我们非参数地比较子宫内和/或直到1岁之前暴露于和未暴露于饥荒的个体的总寿命和剩余寿命，其次，我们估算了生存模型，其中我们控制了个体的特征和其他（早期）决定因素。死亡。我们发现暴露于马铃薯饥荒的长期影响的有力证据。男孩的结果要强于女孩。在出生于马铃薯饥荒中后，男孩和女孩在50岁之后平均分别失去4、2.5岁的寿命。与较高的社会阶层相比，较低的社会阶层受早期遭受马铃薯饥荒的影响更大。这些结果证实了将早期生活（营养）状况与老年死亡率联系起来的机制。最后，出生时较高的食品价格似乎降低了较高社会阶层农民子女的后生死亡率。我们将其解释为收入效应。

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