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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Real-time urban flood forecasting and modelling - a state of the art
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Real-time urban flood forecasting and modelling - a state of the art

机译：实时城市洪水预报和建模-最新技术

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摘要

All urban drainage networks are designed to manage a maximum rainfall. This situation implies an accepted flood risk for any greater rainfall event. This risk is often underestimated as factors such as city growth and climate change are ignored. But even major structural changes cannot guarantee that urban drainage networks would cope with all future rain events. Thus, being able to forecast urban flooding in real time is one of the main issues of integrated flood risk management. Runoff and hydraulic models can be essential elements of flood forecast systems, as an active part of the system or as studying tools. This paper gives an overview of current available options for pluvial flood modelling in urban areas, from basic estimations with a one-dimensional urban drainage model to detailed flood process representation with one dimensional-two dimensional hydrodynamic coupled models. Each type of modelling solution is described with pros and cons regarding urban flood analysis. The paper then elaborates on real-time flood forecast systems and the influence of their main components. A classification of real-time urban flood systems is given based on the use of urban models, i.e. empirical scenarios, pre-simulated scenarios and real-time simulations. A review of existing operational systems is done using this classification.
机译：所有城市排水网络都旨在管理最大降雨。这种情况意味着对于任何更大的降雨事件都存在可接受的洪水风险。由于忽略了诸如城市增长和气候变化等因素，因此常常低估了这种风险。但是，即使是重大的结构变化也无法保证城市排水网络能够应对所有未来的降雨事件。因此，能够实时预测城市洪水是综合洪水风险管理的主要问题之一。径流和水力模型可能是洪水预报系统的基本要素，既可以作为系统的活跃部分，又可以作为研究工具。本文概述了当前可用的城市雨洪模型选择方案，从一维城市排水模型的基本估算到一维二维水动力耦合模型的详细洪水过程表示。每种类型的建模解决方案都有关于城市洪水分析的利弊描述。然后，本文详细介绍了实时洪水预报系统及其主要组成部分的影响。基于城市模型的使用，给出了实时城市洪水系统的分类，即经验情景，预模拟情景和实时模拟。使用此分类对现有的操作系​​统进行审查。

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