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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Predicting peak breach discharge due to embankment dam failure
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Predicting peak breach discharge due to embankment dam failure

机译：预测由于堤坝故障而导致的峰值泄洪量

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摘要

Predicting peak breach discharge due to embankment dam failure is of vital importance for dam failure prevention and mitigation. Because, when dams fail, property damage is certain, but loss of life can vary depending on flood area and population. Many parametric breach models based on regression techniques have been developed so far. In this study, an efficient model is proposed to forecast peak discharge from the height of the water and volume of water behind the dam at failure, respectively, by using the Kriging approach. The previous studies, which consist of 13 numerical models, are used as a benchmark for testing the proposed new model, by employing five different error criteria. Moreover, a new database is compiled by extending the previous one. In addition, it is demonstrated that R~2, which only quantifies the dispersion between measurements and predictions, should not be considered alone for checking the model capabilities. At least, the other criteria should be employed together with R~2. As a result, it is shown that one can forecast the peak flow discharge with more significant accuracy by the proposed model than other previous models developed so far.
机译：预测由于堤坝溃坝而导致的峰值泄洪量对于预防和缓解大坝溃败至关重要。因为，当大坝发生故障时，财产损失是一定的，但是生命的损失会根据洪水区域和人口而有所不同。到目前为止，已经开发了许多基于回归技术的参数违规模型。在这项研究中，提出了一种有效的模型，通过使用Kriging方法，可以分别从失效时的水高和大坝后面的水量预测峰值流量。以前的研究由13个数值模型组成，通过采用五个不同的误差标准，用作测试提出的新模型的基准。此外，通过扩展先前的数据库来编译新的数据库。另外，证明了仅量化测量和预测之间的离散度的R〜2不应单独用于检查模型功能。至少，其他标准应与R〜2一起使用。结果表明，与迄今为止开发的其他先前模型相比，所提出的模型可以更准确地预测峰值流量。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2013年第4期|1361-1376|共16页
  • 作者

    Jasna Duricic; Tarkan Erdik; Pieter van Gelder;

  • 作者单位

    Section of Hydraulic Structure and Flood Risk, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands;

    Section of Hydraulic Structure and Flood Risk, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands;

    Section of Hydraulic Structure and Flood Risk, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    dambreak; embankment dam; kriging; peak discharge;

    机译：该死的堤坝克里格峰值放电;

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