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Enhancement of semi-theoretical models for predicting peak discharges in breached embankment dams

机译：提高突发堤坝峰值排放的半理论模型

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摘要

During the application of semi-theoretical models to predict peak discharges for breached embankment dams, it is often encountered to be lack of necessary model parameters such as breach height. In order to solve this deficiency and improve the application of the semi-theoretical models for estimating the peak discharge, a mathematical relation is proposed to predict the breach height (H-b) using the water depth above breach bottom (H-w) based on a subset of a composite database (72 historical dam failures). The breach height relation has a high coefficient of determination (R-2) when it is applied in the composite database. Using the prediction by the breach height relation as a substitute for the observation, these semi-theoretical models used here produce similar results in terms of both prediction accuracy and uncertainty. Moreover, the dispersion of the flood peak discharge predicted by forecasting models is weakened and the skewness is improved by adopting the breach height relation. Therefore, the application of semi-theoretical models to predict peak discharges can be improved obviously. So, it is found that the breach height using the proposed relation can be a satisfactory substitute when the observed value ofH(b)is unavailable in a dam failure. Besides, the prediction accuracy will decrease slightly with the increase of database, but the decrease is limited. It should be noted that the proposed breach height relation is only suitable for predicting the height of embankment dam breach in principle.
机译：在应用半理论模型期间，预测破坏堤坝的峰值排放，通常遇到缺乏必要的模型参数，例如违规高度。为了解决这一缺陷并改善估计峰值放电的半理论模型的应用，提出了一种数学关系，以基于突破底部（HW）的水深来预测突破高度（HB）复合数据库（72个历史大坝故障）。突发高度关系在复合数据库中应用时具有高系数（R-2）。使用突破高度关系的预测作为观察的替代方法，这里使用的这些半理论模型在预测准确性和不确定性方面产生了类似的结果。此外，通过预测模型预测的洪水峰值放电的分散被削弱，并且通过采用突击高度关系来改善偏斜。因此，可以显着提高半理论模型来预测峰放电的应用。因此，发现使用所提出的关系的突破高度可以是达到的旧坝失败时的值不可用的替代品。此外，通过数据库的增加，预测精度会略微下降，但减少有限。应当注意，所提出的突破高度关系仅适用于预测堤防坝原则的高度。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental fluid mechanics》 |2020年第4期|共20页
  • 作者

    Wang Bo; Liu Wenjun; Zhang Jianmin; Chen Yunliang; Wu Chao; Peng Yong; Wu Zhenyu; Liu Xin; Yang Sha;

  • 作者单位

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

    Sichuan Univ State Key Lab Hydraul &

    Mt River Engn Chengdu 610065 Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 环境物理学;
  • 关键词

    Embankment; Dam failure; Peak discharge; Breach height relation; Semi-theoretical model;

    机译：堤防;坝体失败;峰值放电;突破高度关系;半理论模型;

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