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Computational decision analysis for flood risk management in an uncertain future

机译：不确定未来中洪水风险管理的计算决策分析

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摘要

Flood risk management is in many countries a major expense, and while the returns on this investment, in terms of risk reduction, are also high, the process of developing and choosing between management options is of critical importance. New sources of data and the falling cost of computation have made possible new approaches to options appraisal. The state of the art has a number of limitations, however. We present a comprehensive but parsimonious framework for computational decision analysis in flood risk management that addresses these issues. At its core is a simple but flexible model of change on the decadal time scale of typical option appraisals, including the management interventions that are the subject of decision along with influences, such as climate change, that are independent of the processes of flood risk management. A fully integrated performance model is developed, estimating both costs and benefits. Uncertainty analysis can thereby be applied to performance metrics of direct interest to stakeholders. We illustrate the framework with an implementation for a hypothetical flood risk management decision. We discuss possible variants of the framework that could be extended to fields other than flood risk management.
机译：在许多国家，洪水风险管理是一项主要费用，尽管就减少风险而言，这项投资的回报也很高，但制定管理方案和在管理方案之间进行选择的过程至关重要。新的数据来源和不断下降的计算成本使选择权评估的新方法成为可能。然而，现有技术具有许多限制。我们针对洪水风险管理提出了一个全面而简约的计算决策分析框架，旨在解决这些问题。其核心是一个简单而灵活的典型期权评估的十年时间尺度上的变化模型，其中包括作为决策对象的管理干预措施以及与气候变化等影响无关的影响，这些影响与洪水风险管理过程无关。开发了一个完全集成的绩效模型，可以估算成本和收益。不确定性分析因此可以应用于利益相关者直接关注的绩效指标。我们以假设的洪水风险管理决策的实现方式说明了该框架。我们讨论了该框架的可能变体，这些变体可以扩展到洪水风险管理以外的其他领域。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2012年第3期|p.537-561|共25页
  • 作者

    Hamish Harvey; Jim Hall; Roger Peppe;

  • 作者单位

    School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK;

    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, 0X1 3QY, UK;

    School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    decision analysis; flood risk management; long-term change; reframe; risk analysis;

    机译：决策分析;洪水风险管理;长期变化;改组风险分析;

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