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Deterministic and probabilistic approaches to the development of pH total maximum daily loads: a comparative analysis

机译：确定pH总最大日负荷的确定性和概率方法：比较分析

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The most commonly used deterministic approach to the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) fails to explicitly address issues related to a margin of safety and inherent variability of streamflows in the process of TMDL development. In this paper, the deterministic approach to pH TMDL development for Beech Creek watershed, Muhlenberg County, Kentucky, proposed by Ormsbee, Elshorbagy and Zechman is discussed. The shortcomings and the limitations of the assumptions associated with the deterministic approach are highlighted. An alternative probabilistic approach, to cope with the percentile-based water quality standards based on Monte Carlo simulation, is presented and compared to the deterministic approach. The proposed probabilistic approach provides a deeper insight into the issue of uncertainty and emphasizes the importance of handling the water quality standards and TMDLs in terms of magnitude and frequency rather than a single-valued approach. Expected exceedances and the confidence of compliance with percentile-based standards are estimated. Accordingly, an objective method of estimating the margin of safety for pH TMDLs is proposed.
机译：开发总最大日负荷（TMDL）的最常用确定性方法无法明确解决与TMDL开发过程中的安全裕度和流量固有变化有关的问题。本文讨论了Ormsbee，Elshorbag​​y和Zechman提出的肯塔基州Muhlenberg县Beech Creek流域pH TMDL开发的确定性方法。强调了与确定性方法相关的假设的缺点和局限性。提出了一种替代的概率方法，用于处理基于蒙特卡洛模拟的基于百分位的水质标准，并将其与确定性方法进行比较。提议的概率方法提供了对不确定性问题的更深入了解，并强调了在幅度和频率方面处理水质标准和TMDL的重要性，而不是单值方法。估计了预期的超标和遵守基于百分位数的标准的置信度。因此，提出了一种估计pH TMDL的安全裕度的客观方法。

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