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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Impact of land use on water resources via a Gaussian process emulator with dimension reduction
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Impact of land use on water resources via a Gaussian process emulator with dimension reduction

机译：通过高斯过程仿真器降低土地使用对水资源的影响

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摘要

The replacement of models by emulators is becoming a frequent approach in environmental science due to the reduction of computational time, and different approaches exist in the water resources modelling literature. In this work, an emulator to mimic a hydrological model at catchment scale is proposed, taking into account the effect of land use on the hydrological processes involved in water balance. The proposed approach is novel for its combination of techniques. The dimension of the temporal model output is reduced via principal component analysis, and this reduced output is approximated using Gaussian process emulators built on a conditioned Latin hypercube design to reflect constrained land use inputs. Uncertainty from both the model approximation and the dimension reduction is propagated back to the space of the original output. The emulator has been applied to simulate river flow in a rural river basin located in south west England, the Frome at East Stoke Total, but the methodology is general. Results showed that the use of the emulator for water resources assessment at catchment scale is an effective approach, providing accurate estimates of the model output as a function of land use inputs, for a reduction of the computational burden.
机译：由于减少了计算时间，因此用仿真器替换模型已成为环境科学中的一种常见方法，并且水资源建模文献中存在不同的方法。在这项工作中，考虑到土地利用对水平衡所涉及的水文过程的影响，提出了一种在流域尺度上模拟水文模型的仿真器。所提出的方法由于其技术的结合是新颖的。时态模型输出的维数通过主成分分析而减小，并且减少的输出可使用基于条件拉丁超立方体设计构建的高斯过程仿真器来近似，以反映受限的土地利用输入。模型逼近和降维所带来的不确定性都会传播回原始输出的空间。该仿真器已被用于模拟英格兰西南部农村流域东斯托克道达尔的弗罗姆河的水流，但该方法是通用的。结果表明，在流域尺度上使用仿真器进行水资源评估是一种有效的方法，可以根据土地利用投入提供对模型输出的准确估算，从而减轻计算负担。

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