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Local governmental pre-alarm system of debt risk: a frame design

机译:地方政府债务风险预警系统:框架设计

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摘要

Local governmental pre-alarm system of is an essential part which can avoid governmental debt risk and debt crisis. This paper studies further into the Guanxin Economic Development Zone's current situation of debt risk and features adopting quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis combined with theory of local governmental debt risk. Thus, the author puts forward suggestion in order to establish prediction model of local govern-mental debt risk, then designs prediction index and standard. The paper focuses on the Guanxin Economic Development Zone's governmental debt risk and sets up a model by econometric techniques such as establishing AHP and extending the level. The paper provides a new idea to establish debt risk pre-alarm system for local government.
机译:地方政府预警系统是可以避免政府债务风险和债务危机的重要组成部分。本文通过定量分析和定性分析结合地方政府债务风险理论,进一步研究了冠信经济开发区债务风险的现状和特征。为此,作者提出了一些建议,以期建立地方政府债务风险的预测模型,然后设计预测指标和标准。本文以冠新经济开发区政府债务风险为重点,通过建立层次分析法,扩大层次等计量经济学技术建立模型。本文为建立地方政府债务风险预警系统提供了新思路。

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