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Estimation Of The Effects Of Influential Factors On Pavement Service Life With Cox Proportional Hazards Method

机译:用考克斯比例危害法估算影响因素对路面使用寿命的影响

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Estimating the effects of influential factors on pavement service life is an important, but difficult task for highway agencies. In this paper, by specifying a particular pavement condition rating (PCR) as the terminal pavement status, survival curves were developed based on historical PCR data using the Cox proportional hazards (PH) method. Further, the estimated service lives of pavements are obtained from these survival curves. As an example, the survival data of asphalt overlays on flexible pavements in Ohio are analyzed for this study. The effects of influential factors, such as structure thickness, climate, traffic loading, and pavement conditions prior to repair on pavement service life were assessed. The results show that the Cox PH model is applicable in estimating the effects of influential factors on pavement service life. The service life obtained from this study can be used to assist with pavement rehabilitation decision-making, overlay design, and budget allocation.
机译:估算影响因素对路面使用寿命的影响,对于公路代理机构而言是一项重要但艰巨的任务。在本文中,通过指定特定的路面状况等级(PCR)作为最终路面状态,使用Cox比例风险(PH)方法根据历史PCR数据绘制了生存曲线。此外,从这些生存曲线可以得出路面的估计使用寿命。例如,本研究分析了俄亥俄州柔性路面上沥青覆盖层的存活数据。评估了影响因素,如结构厚度,气候,交通负荷和维修前的路面状况对路面使用寿命的影响。结果表明,Cox PH模型可用于估算影响因素对路面使用寿命的影响。从这项研究中获得的使用寿命可用于协助路面修复决策,覆盖设计和预算分配。

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