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Monitored versus experience-based perceptions of environmental change: evidence from coastal Tanzania

机译：监测与基于经验的环境变化感知：坦桑尼亚沿海的证据

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The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate many problems that coastal areas already face. In this study, we used multinomial logistic regression to examine human perception of climate change based on a cross-sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal regions of Tanzania. This was complemented with time series analysis of 50-year meteorological data. The results indicate that self-rated ability to handle work pressure, self-rated ability to handle personal pressure and unexpected difficulties, age, region and educational status were significant predictors of perceived temperature change unlike ethnicity and gender. A disproportionately large percentage of respondents of all ages indicated that temperature was getting hotter between the past 10 and 30 years. This observation was supported by the time series analysis. Although respondents also alluded to changes in rainfall patterns in the past 10-30 years, time series analysis of rainfall revealed a different scenario except for Mtwara region of Tanzania. Because there is agreement between respondents' perceptions of temperature and available scientific climatic evidence over the 50-year period, this study argues that when meteorological records are incomplete or unavailable, local perceptions of climatic changes can be used to complement scientific climatic evidence. Based on the spatial differentials in climate change perception observed in this study, there is opportunity for a more locally oriented adaptation dimension to climate policy integration, which has hitherto been underserved by both academics and policymakers.
机译：气候变化的影响可能会加剧沿海地区已经面临的许多问题。在这项研究中，我们基于对坦桑尼亚沿海地区的1253个人的横断面调查，使用多项逻辑回归分析来检验人类对气候变化的看法。这是对50年气象数据的时间序列分析的补充。结果表明，与种族和性别不同，自我评估的处理工作压力的能力，自我评估的处理个人压力的能力以及意外的困难，年龄，地区和教育状况是感知温度变化的重要预测指标。在所有年龄段的受访者中，比例过高的人表示，在过去10到30年之间，温度越来越高。时间序列分析支持了这一观察结果。尽管受访者还提到了过去10至30年的降雨模式变化，但对降雨的时间序列分析显示出除坦桑尼亚姆特瓦拉地区以外的其他情况。由于在过去的50年中，受访者对温度的认识与现有的科学气候证据之间存在共识，因此本研究认为，当气象记录不完整或不可用时，可以将当地的气候变化看法用于科学气候证据的补充。根据本研究中观察到的对气候变化知觉的空间差异，有机会针对气候政策整合采取更加面向本地的适应维度，迄今为止，学术界和政策制定者都没有对此进行研究。

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