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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of integrative Environmental Sciences >Environmental implications of rural policies in China: a multi-agent model at the level of agricultural households
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Environmental implications of rural policies in China: a multi-agent model at the level of agricultural households

机译：中国农村政策对环境的影响：农业家庭层面的多主体模型

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We analyzed the socioeconomic and environmental changes in rural China from the perspective of agricultural households and developed a multi-agent agricultural household model for rural environmental management (MAREM). The MAREM model consists of four submodules: the agricultural household production module, the consumption module, the labor supply module, and the environmental assessment module. In the model, virtual agricultural households exist in a hypothetical village. Farmers follow a self-adaptive approach to learn and understand policy variations, in order to make relevant decisions. The model has been validated through simulation of actual trends (the based-on-reality scenario). On the basis of this scenario, we further analyzed possible future trends in rural environmental pollution in China. Our results reflect that China may enter a period of farmer income stagnation accompanied by a rapid deterioration in rural environmental quality. Ammonia emission from livestock production may become the primary agricultural source of air pollution, and eutrophication is calculated to be the major water pollution issue for the long term. Synthetic fertilizer application is projected to be the dominant source of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in aquatic system (contributing to about 64% and 46% of the total discharge, respectively). Our study shows that MAREM is an effective tool to analyze the interactions between agricultural households' behavior and environmental consequences under specific policies in China.
机译：我们从农业家庭的角度分析了中国农村的社会经济和环境变化，并开发了用于农村环境管理（MAREM）的多主体农业家庭模型。 MAREM模型包括四个子模块：农业家庭生产模块，消费模块，劳动力供应模块和环境评估模块。在该模型中，虚拟农业家庭存在于一个假设的村庄中。农民采用自适应方法来学习和理解政策变化，以便做出相关决策。该模型已通过模拟实际趋势（基于实际情况）进行了验证。在这种情况下，我们进一步分析了中国农村环境污染的未来可能趋势。我们的结果表明，中国可能进入农民收入停滞期，农村环境质量迅速恶化。畜牧业产生的氨气排放可能成为空气污染的主要农业来源，长期以来，富营养化被认为是主要的水污染问题。合成肥料的施用预计将是水生系统中总氮（N）和磷（P）的主要来源（分别占总排放量的64％和46％）。我们的研究表明，MAREM是分析中国特定政策下农户行为与环境后果之间相互作用的有效工具。

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