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Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China's goods trade data

机译:伪装交易和全球流动性冲击的传递:来自中国货物贸易数据的证据

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摘要

Currency carry trade disguised as goods trade can potentially channel external financial shocks to domestic economic environment, despite capital controls. We identify this channel in the context of post-GFC China using variations in product characteristics and a policy shock. We show that trade volumes of cost-efficient products responded significantly more to carry returns. However, such differential responses to carry returns vanished after the government's clampdown on illicit capital flows. At the aggregate level, we demonstrate further that the surge in disguised carry trades led to a significant expansion of China's shadow banking credit but not its traditional bank lending credit. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:尽管资本管制,但伪装成商品贸易可将外部金融冲击转移到国内经济环境的货币套利交易。我们使用产品特性的变化和政策冲击,在全球金融危机后的中国确定这种渠道。我们显示,具有成本效益的产品的贸易量对带来收益的反应明显更多。但是,在政府制止非法资本流动之后,这种对套利收益的不同反应就消失了。从总体上看,我们进一步证明,变相套利交易的激增导致中国的影子银行信贷大幅扩张,但并未扩大其传统的银行贷款信贷。 (C)2020 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of International Money and Finance》 |2020年第6期|102180.1-102180.17|共17页
  • 作者

  • 作者单位

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Econ Shatin Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    GF Secur Co Ltd Res Dev Ctr 16-F Shanghai IFC Bldg Shanghai Peoples R China;

    Chinese Univ Hong Kong Shenzhen Sch Management & Econ CUHK Business Sch 2001 Longxiang Blvd Shenzhen Guangdong Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Carry trade; Goods trade; Global liquidity shock; Capital control; Shadow banking;

    机译:利差交易;货物贸易;全球流动性冲击;资本控制;影子银行;

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